10 Nov
bearish neutral

Mixed trading conditions ahead for the global crypto market in the next 24 hours. Bitcoin and Polygon face cloudy skies, translating into a slightly bearish market with downside risk. The sun, however, shines over the rest of the cryptosphere like Ether, Avalanche and Ripple, hinting at upside potential, according to ATTMO.

Over a one-week horizon, Bitcoin and Avalanche are likely to also benefit from a bullish sunny sky. Ether will see tropical trading conditions with rain indicating that an imminent market correction is likely.

Ether outperforms on spot ETF hopes, while Bitcoin trades little changed

The cryptocurrency trend was mixed over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin, Ripple’s XRP and Dogecoin negatively impacted by news about interest rates that were worse than expected by market participants. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve said the central bank would not hesitate to raise rates further if appropriate and did not signal any rate cuts ahead.

The price of Bitcoin dropped 0.5 percent over the past 24 hours to 36,606 US dollars. The cryptocurrency’s market cap now exceeds that of Tesla’s and is the world’s 11th largest behind assets such as gold, silver and leading tech stocks.

“We've now closed multiple days above both Weekly and Monthly resistance. The next significant resistance [is] $58K,” the founder of Capriole Investments Charles Edwards said.

“Closing below $35K would be ugly and an important level for risk management here. Otherwise from raw technicals, it doesn't get much better than this,” he added.

Another crypto expert, the founder of Adamant Research, Tuur Demeester added that retail investors still have not reentered the crypto market during this ongoing bull cycle. “Once #bitcoin pushes past $40-50k, regular people will begin to wake up—feeling like a giant bullet train is whizzing by their doorstep.”

The ongoing crypto rally has mainly been triggered by hopes that the dozen spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETF) applied for by leading asset managers will soon be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and lead to massive inflows that in turn will push the price of Bitcoin higher.

“ETF analysts have noted that even after a primary SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETF, the actual launch might see weeks or even months of delay due to the approval required from Corporate Finance on the S-1 filing,” Matrixport’s Head of Research and Strategy, Markus Thielen noted.

However, JP Morgan’s analysts expressed caution, warning about this ETF-triggered rally. “Instead of fresh capital entering crypto markets, we see existing capital in bitcoin products shifting into newly [yet to be] approved spot bitcoin ETFs,” quotes them as saying.

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Ethereum soars as BlackRock registers an Ethereum Trust

The second-largest crypto currency, Ether, soared 10 percent over the past 24 hours after BlackRock registered an Ethereum Trust in the US state Delaware.

“The iShares Ethereum Trust has just been registered in Delaware. For context, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was registered in a similar manner 7 days before they filed the ETF application with the SEC,” the anonymous X:er @SummerThings wrote.

This rush for Ether triggered a massive liquidation movement, with short positions worth more than 60 million dollars and long positions worth more than 20 million dollars being liquidated on Thursday.

SEC’s crypto enforcement power limited by Congress

The Financial Services and General Government Appropriations Act of 2024 was amended by the House of Representatives to effectively limit the power of the SEC.

“My amendment prohibits the SEC from using taxpayer-funded resources to pursue enforcement actions against the digital asset industry until Congress passes legislation that authorizes regulatory enforcement jurisdiction,” Republican Congressman Tom Emmer said.

Grayscale in talks with SEC on conversion of its GBTC trust into an ETF

Meanwhile, Grayscale Investments is in talks with the SEC about its plans to convert its Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The US regulator, which had tried to reject dealing withthis application, was forced to do so by a US court in August.

“What you’ve seen now over the last few weeks is our team putting in the appropriate filings in front of the [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] … with all the required documents that would support us moving towards that uplisting on NYSE,” the asset manager’s CEO Michael Sonenshein told Bloomberg.

The price of the Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has soared by 255 percent to 29.09 US dollars since the beginning of the year, beating the return of Bitcoin standing at 121 percent.

Ripple & SEC also in talks about a potential settlement

Another crypto company in the midst of a legal battle with the SEC is Ripple Labs. On Thursday, the two parties proposed a schedule for their ongoing court case to Judge Analisa Torres.

”In essence, while this document doesn’t give a direct indication of the likelihood of a settlement, it suggests that both parties are still engaging in the litigation process and are preparing for potential future court proceedings. Settlements can occur at any stage… It's also possible that this preparation may be part of the strategic positioning to create leverage in settlement negotiations,” Andrew Sperazza noted.

Ripple was sued by the SEC in 2020 and has since won a partial victory when Judge Torres ruled that its crypto currency XRP does not classify as a security when sold to retail investors on the open market. XRP lost 6.5 percent over the past 24 hours to 0.65 dollars.

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ATTMO, a weather-inspired AI tool, makes cryptocurrency predictions. It also forecasts longer-term cryptocurrency trends. These forecasts are not trading advice; they are only decision support tools. They do not include information that is specific to the user; in particular they do not account for their personal risk appetite or market assessment. The forward-looking weather-inspired predictions part of this report may have changed by the time you read this edition of ATTMO Times. So always check the latest ATTMO predictions before making any investment decision.